Real estate bubble ? Not in Spain

According to a report by the Bank for International Settlements, global real house prices increased by 4.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022. This strong growth in real terms reflects a surge (+11.2%) in nominal terms – the first double-digit recorded since the eve of the Great Financial Crisis – partly offset by the acceleration in consumer price indices.

Real house price developments continued to diverge between advanced economies (AE, +8.5% yoy) and emerging market economies (EME, +1.6%).

Real house prices jumped in Turkey (by around 35%), Canada (20%), Australia (14%) and the United States (12%). They fell by 3 to 4% in Brazil and India.

In real terms, global house prices are now 29% above their immediate post-G FC average levels. They increased by 41% in the AEs and by 19% in the EMEs.

Overall, for the AE group, real residential real estate prices rose 8.5% in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 7.8% in the last quarter of 2021. Prices rose at rates double digits in Canada (+18%), Australia (+14%). %) and in the United States (+12%), reflecting strong nominal price growth (20–25%). They rose a little less vigorously in Japan (+8%) and the United Kingdom (+3%). Prices increased by 3% in the euro area, where developments continued to vary considerably between Member States. Strong growth in real house prices continued in the Netherlands (+11%), Portugal (+8%) and Germany (+6%). Real prices increased less rapidly in France (+3%) and remained more or less stable in Spain (+1%) and Italy (–1%)

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